Hurricane Florence track turns south, likely 'storm of a lifetime' for Carolinas

John Bacon and Doyle Rice USA TODAY

Published 9:55 AM EDT Sep 12, 2018

Hurricane Florence is now expected to slow down and turn south after making a roaring landfall along the East Coast, a forecast that could have dire consequences for South Carolina, meteorologists said Wednesday.

Florence is a mammoth, Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. It is expected to reach the Carolinas early overnight Thursday, and more than a million people have been ordered to evacuate coastal areas.

National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina, said the latest models show Florence reaching a "ridge" building over the eastern U.S., stalling and then moving into South Carolina. The office warned that Florence "will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast."

The slowdown could mean 20 inches of rain or more in some areas of North and South Carolina, along with an extended period of high winds that could take down trees and power lines.

"Heed the warnings," FEMA's Jeff Byard said. "Today's the day. It's time for citizens to be a part of the team... and evacuate."

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The storm, as of 8 a.m. ET, was located about 530 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Florence is still forecast to make landfall in North or South Carolina. But the prediction previously had called for a move north.

"The NHC track has been adjusted southward ... and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories," the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

Speaking of the unusual forecast track, which shows a spin to the south along the South Carolina coast, Weather Channel meteorologist Greg Postel said, "I've never seen anything like this."  

The current track could make a tremendous difference to residents of the Washington, D.C., metro area and points north. Alan Reppert, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, said areas around Richmond, Virginia, could see 8 inches of rain. Washington, 100 miles to the north, might only see an inch.

Ryan Maue, a weather.us meteorologist who said Florence is forecast to dump some 10 trillion gallons of water on the Carolinas, called the forecast "bizarre" and said that "the forecast after 72 hours is certainly a challenge ... and a nightmare."

Travel disruptions will be many. Nationwide, more than 575 flights have been canceled from Wednesday through Friday, flight-tracking service FlightAware. 

In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper ordered an unprecedented evacuation of the state's barrier islands. Officials in coastal Dare and Hyde counties ordered a mandatory evacuation for everyone: tourists and residents.

The exodus slowed to a crawl in some areas amid heavy traffic and roads awash with early storm surge.

Donnie Shumate, Hyde County's spokesperson, warned residents to get off the barrier island of Ocracoke as soon as possible.

"Ocracoke hasn't seen anything in recent memory like the amount of storm surge this storm could bring," she said. "And Ocracoke has been through a lot of hurricanes."

More than 1 million people living along the coast of North and South Carolina and Virginia have been ordered to evacuate. In Wilmington, Melinda Chipley said it was the first mandatory evacuation they have faced since she began living on the beach in 2001.

Hurricanes are “a part of living on the coast” although the preparations make them worrisome, stressful and tired, she said.

Her neighbor Lori Rosbrugh was also leaving, after trying to protect her home with sandbags.

“I had a great time filling 25 sandbags, and I get them all home and my husband’s like, ‘Do you really think those sandbags are going to keep six feet of water out of the house?’” Rosbrugh said. “I said, ‘No but makes me feel better.’ I don’t know if they’re doing to do a  whole lot if we take a direct hit.

Contributing: Ben Mutzabaugh, USA TODAY, Daniel Gross, The Greenville News

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